A P/E of 30ish means that people think Google could grow 3X. Seems reasonable.
I'm on the fence. I think Google is doing amazing things and there is enormous potential. However, we're also talking about huge numbers. Annual revenue is already $60B. To go to $180B at the same margins they need huge successes. Like having self driving cars turn into a $60B/year business. Is that possible? Yes. But when you start to think about how huge the numbers are you see that its not easy.
Its hard to escape the arithmetic of the law of large numbers.
I'm on the fence. I think Google is doing amazing things and there is enormous potential. However, we're also talking about huge numbers. Annual revenue is already $60B. To go to $180B at the same margins they need huge successes. Like having self driving cars turn into a $60B/year business. Is that possible? Yes. But when you start to think about how huge the numbers are you see that its not easy.
Its hard to escape the arithmetic of the law of large numbers.