90% of the actual code writing? Yes. The actually valuable part is coming up with the ideas for what to do.

There isn't going to be a great reset where everyone goes back to coding by hand any more than we're going back to typesetting by hand.

We're not talking about the LLMs of today but whatever shows up 2 years from now and then again 2 years after that. Don't look at the present state of things but instead project the trend line.