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This is all so frustrating. Tesla could have easily been an American auto maker generational success story. Instead they’re working hard to undermine their own success, turn their brand toxic, and even design vehicles that are unappealing to key purchasing demographics (Cybertruck).


Yes, Elon's trajectory has been absolutely unbelievable since 2019 or so. Talk about a guy who cratered his whole reputation. It's a shame.


What changed is he took the mask off. He was always the sleaze that he is today, but a lot of us were fooled into believing he wanted to do something good.


I think the vast majority of people that operate at that level of success have a similar mask, but they’re more successful in managing it.

What caused Elon to lose his ability to manage it is subject for debate, I personally believe he discovered drugs in 2019 and the rest is history.


He brought good things due to high-conviction bold moves though, like democratizing EVs, reusable rockets, and most of all, actual internet in airplanes.


Is it accurate to say Tesla democratized EVs? The Roadster came out in 2008 but was over $100k. Over its lifetime they only sold around 2500. It was always a rich person's car.

The first 21st century EV in the US that was aimed at a more mainstream mass market was the Nissan Leaf which launched in late 2010, and in the first year sold 4x as many units Tesla Roadster's lifetime sales.

Tesla took a significant step toward an EV for the less rich with the Model S in 2012. It was still a lot more expensive than a Leaf (about 80%ish more for a base Model S) but way less than the Roadster.

The Leaf was the world's best selling EV in 2011-2014 and 2016, and in 2020 was the first to reach 500k sales.

It wasn't until 2017 with the model 3 that Tesla had a car that, like the Leaf, was priced in the range typical middle class families could afford. That's when they took off, and they caught up and passed Leaf in cumulative sales in early 2021.


Yes, credit where credit is due, he achieved a lot, and was instrumental in both SpaceX and the whole EV transition.

He just took a wrong turn and seems hell bent on staying on it.


- he most certainly did not democratize EVs, although he said the plan all along was to make cheap EVs it wasn’t until other car companies started “democratizing” EVs that his had was forced (and delayed)

- we had internet (and still do) in planes that have nothing to do with starlink


His contact with Epstein began in 2012.


What changed is that he doesn't have a publicist filtering his nonsense anymore.


> What changed is he took the mask off.

I think long-term drug use changed his brain and turned him bad.


Looks like ketamine therapy worked (I’m no shaming)?


I don't agree after reading Walter Isaacson's excellent biography of Elon. It's deeply unfortunate that the book is already a few years old, I'd love and buy the hell out of a 2nd edition that is updated with the last few years.

Obviously it's always been latent in Elon, but he was a pretty bog standard lightly-if-apolitical silicon valley startup guy for most of his adult life. The free speech erosion under the Biden admin is what really started to "red pill" him and eventually led him off the cliff. It's a sad story really, but an important one because I think there are a lot of people in the same boat, and understandign them is important if we want to correct the trajectory of our country's ship. It's a damn hard problem though.


Googling a little, he was a dem:

>Having reportedly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, Musk even voiced his pro-Dems alignment in 2022 when he posted on X, formerly Twitter, that he had “strongly supported Obama for President” in 2007.

I think he turned after Tesla was snubbed at Biden's 2021 EV summit because although it was the US's largest EV maker it wasn't unionized and Biden was in with the unions.

I can sort of see that being annoying.


He supports Trump now, so I really doubt free speech is important to him.


Free speech erosion under Biden... can you elaborate?


Nothing productive will come out of this conversation.


There are a lot of people who are unhappy with the steps the government took to crack down on COVID misinformation, and some people are still upset about Twitter's decision to limit spread of the Hunter Biden laptop story (which was entirely unilateral, and reversed within 24 hours).

Both of these took place in 2020, when Trump was president, but of course Trump's greatest coup was to make everybody think Biden was president in 2020.


The number of media outlets that spiked the laptop story is shameful.

There really isn’t a good excuse.



Remind me who was president in 2020..


Fair, that one wasn't a good example for this.

Though IMHO it's not just a Biden problem, it's a "everybody in power" problem. They just can't seem to resist (ab)using their power to shape the conversation and censor their opponents. It's also not new, it's been happening for hundreds of years at least. But it did get a lot more brazen under Biden IMHO with Twitter/Facebook etc and admin officials telling private companies what to censor (err, "moderate").


Damn it's really an infringement on our rights that they cracked down on people yelling "fire" in a crowded theater


This is your regularly mandated PSA that the quote about "yelling 'fire' in a crowded theater" comes from Schenck v US, which used that analogy to justify why the government could ban people from protesting the draft in WW1. It is not good law anymore, and has been fully superseded since the Brandenburg v Ohio case which limited the exemption to "imminent lawless action."


Oh well when you put it that way, I guess it's good that kids are dying of measles again.


Read the links. It wasn't just that. People from the administration were actively talking with social media companies and telling them to take stuff down. At some points they even demanded it.

andy do you really think the Hunter Biden laptop story was equivalent or even close to "yelling fire in a crowded theatre"?


twitters own lawyers argue against this reading in 2023, see page 11 onwards:

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.38...


They didn't. Fbi told Facebook etc to be on the lookout for Russia pushing stories to influence elections etc, they didn't ask them to do anything specific. Bidens campaign did ask Twitter to remove nudes of his son, which already broke Twitters own rules. This is why the twitterfiles were a nothing burger.


2018 (tham luang cave rescue) is when the cracks really started showing up, so the trajectory was probably set a while earlier.

The tendency was probably always there given the serial lying about self driving started circa 2015, or the weird ego trip of ousting the founders and getting himself called co-founder, but if we’re looking for a point event the removal of his long time PA in 2014 still stands out to me.


He really managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


Really? What was it you liked about him before, but not now?


The man lead an electric car company and a reusable rocket company to succes. What is not to like?


And yet he's only about 500B richer than the second richest person in the world:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/


So? I’d much rather be one of the lesser billionaires and still have my reputation, scruples, and dignity.


What did he do specifically to crater his reputation?

Is it his politics? He seems to have reasonable beliefs there. It's not like he's been supporting Trump unconditionally. He doesn't always agree with Trump. Is it because of his stance in favor of free speech? How is that a bad thing? As someone who doesn't like any side of politics, I don't get it.


Two very public Nazi salutes without any attempt to deny it afterwards will certainly crater anyone's reputation. It's not really politics, but more a question of humanity, but then people don't become billionaires without having a contempt for others and a desire to underpay and mistreat everyone you come into contact with.


[flagged]


Fair enough, I see that online all the time. Here’s my take.

Raising your hand alone is a common gesture that pretty much everyone has done. Saying “my heart goes out to you” gives plausible deniability. But making the hand gesture while clicking your heels together and snapping to attention with a stern jaw-jutting look on your face is pretty unmistakably a nazi salute.

Elon has publicly denied it was a nazi salute, but any normal person would go a step further and also disavow neo nazi ideology in the same breath. But doing that would break the dog whistle effect.

Some people say he’s just trolling, and yes, Elon likes to troll. But trolling or not, it has the same effect if you don’t also renounce neo nazism. It normalizes and shows you are comfortable with it.

Can I prove he’s a neo nazi? No I haven’t gone through his wallet and found his membership card. But his support for the AfD and all his great-replacement-theory adjacent talk are strong signals.


> Elon has publicly denied it was a nazi salute

Do you have a link to his specific quote denying it?



No they haven't. You've likely been misled by seeing still images of their hand in that position, whereas if you see the video, then it's clearly nothing like a Nazi salute. Meanwhile, the video of Musk makes it incredibly clear that it's a Nazi salute and he has not denied that as far as I know.

His politics also seem to align very much with white supremacy and the far right.


Here’s a denial from Musk.

Plus the Anti-Defamation League clearing Musk.

Plus a Democrat congressman clearing Musk.

All this from a left-leaning publication.

The ADL alone should give reasonable people reason to give Musk benefit of the doubt.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-01-21/musk-says-...


The ADL is much more of a far right Israeli lobby these days than anything else. Of course they support the administration.


That doesn't seem like a denial from Musk, but instead he's just accusing others, but the article doesn't include specific quotes.

From what I remember of the incident, he specifically didn't deny that they were Nazi salutes, but merely hinted that they may have been a Roman salute, though that's pretty much the same thing.

I can't recall any time that he's tried to distance himself from Nazis or their ideology.

Although the ADL didn't think that it was a Nazi salute, most other Jewish organisations thought that it was and Germany very much condemned it, so on balance reasonable people should conclude that it's generally thought of as a Nazi salute. Also, former ADL national director Abraham Foxman described the gesture as a "Heil Hitler Nazi salute".

Reasonable people can simply watch the video and see for themselves - it very much looked exactly like a Nazi salute to me.


> Here’s a denial from Musk.

Here's video of Musk performing his fascist salutes. He did it deliberately, he did it with gusto, he grunted with the effort, and he did it twice just to make sure:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smQNNo2a9xc

There's no denying it.


He did deny it multiple times on Twitter/X. Probably your news source of choice is the one which omitted this fact.

I think it probably did look a bit that way and maybe he did it for engagement, maybe he intended to create controversy or maybe it was none of these things. In any case, it wasn't an actual Nazi salute.


> He did deny it multiple times on Twitter/X

That's interesting - have you got a link?


Dude did a Nazi salute and made a speech in support of the neonazi party in Gernany.

I think we got a few steps beyond "reasonable beliefs".

I mean, perhaps it is reasonable for you, but then we will find very little common ground.


No. For all practical purposes, Chinese cars are perfectly fine for most consumers. Since you cannot beat China on manufacturing costs, this war is already lost. Musk or no Musk.


There is no reason Chinese EVs couldn’t have been beaten on cost.

The labor/environmental costs of car manufacturing is relatively low and more than made up in the cost of shipping cars. One example of this was the number of foreign car manufacturers that were relocating manufacturing to the NAFTA region to serve the U.S. car market even before the tariff nonsense.

The area where China might have an edge is batteries cost. I’m not convinced that’s the case but even if we assume it is, it’s irrelevant because Chinese battery companies are largely not vertically integrated with the automakers and have been selling those batteries to non Chinese automakers at the same rates in an open market.

The reason Chinese EVs are cheaper is plain and simple competition. Some of those price advantages will disappear as Chinese companies need to start showing profits, but a lot of those won’t because they were the result of genuine innovation driven by the tremendously competitive market and the economies of scale that were rapidly created.

Keeping that in mind, while a lot of Tesla’s missed opportunities are self owns, the larger problem ultimately was the lack of govt support in developing a competitive ecosystem in the US.


I like your pretty optimistic take. I'm not convinced but I want to believe, and that's an interesting take.

One critical correction though: BYD makes 16% of the world's batteries. And makes cars. So there is vertical integration in play. https://cnevpost.com/2026/02/04/global-ev-battery-market-sha...

Ford and Stellantis are meanwhile busy trying to partner with Chinese companies, to make their own battery factories. Even though it seems like maybe they'll end up making more batteries for stationary power than for vehicles.


> The labor/environmental costs of car manufacturing is relatively low

Not for union manufacturers. $1500 of the cost of every GM car is healthcare.


> Chinese battery companies are largely not vertically integrated with the automakers

BYD was a battery company first and expanded into cars


Chineese phonemakers exist yet Apple pulls in a significant portion of profits due to their _halo_ allowing them to sell at a higher price point.

Tesla had that, all Musk had to do was refrain himself from waving his hand around in that certain fashion.

New registrations in Sweden for the past 3 years, Sweden alone would've probably absorbed about 14000 cars of that unsold stock.

  2023  20388  341835  0,0596428101276932  (5.96%)
  2024  21894  314485  0,0696185827622939  (6.96%)
  2025   7254  314426  0,0230706112089967  (2.31%)
  2026   2849   72525  0,0392830058600483  (3.93%)
(Sales in 2026 were low until March 2026, Musk probably gotta thank Trump for oil-prices jumping up enough to move the needle again)

The worst news for Tesla isn't the sales though, with "Texas-like" distances in Sweden (and Norway and Finland) there was a perception that only Tesla cars could properly handle the distances without getting too much battery angst.

When people started looking around they realized that the other carmakers were getting their shit together and could actually deliver cars that handled distances well enough.


> Chineese phonemakers exist yet Apple pulls in a significant portion of profits due to their _halo_ allowing them to sell at a higher price point.

The difference is that most customers have the financial wiggle room to buy a more expensive phone. With cars this is an entirely different story because cars are the most expensive things people own (besides a house).

For most people it holds that a car should just get them from A to B. The money for anything more fancy is better spent on something else.

There is a reason Apple is not in the car business.


And yet the average price paid for a new car is up to $50k. Americans definitely aren’t just buying a basic car to get them from A to B.


> Tesla had that, all Musk had to do was refrain himself from waving his hand around in that certain fashion.

He probably also would have had to refrain from retweeting white nationalists and adding the 100 points emoji that is usually used in that context to mean "100% agreement with the tweet".


Buying a Tesla was already considered edgy in some demographics, but doing that famous fascist gesture because you feel powerful definitely crossed a line as far as Europeans are concerned.


DOGing half the US population didn't help. I guess he wasn't content firing most of twitter, then begging half of them to come back, only to then lament that twitter had lost 80% of it's value in this processs wasn't enough. He had to do the same to the entire US ... and it's still working.


DOGE was super crazy and corruption at its finest, but that was US internal politics of which many in Europe do not care to such a degree.

Effectively endorsing Hitler is on a different level for many Europeans.

Even the right most extremists/fascists parties don't do that in the open, as far as I know (in Germany that would even be illegal and a party doing that systematically could get banned).


Yeah, EVs are completely mundane now. Not sexy enough of a story to justify the high PE ratios anymore.

I think this is the reason for the weird pivot to humanoid robots and for taking SpaceX public even though he originally said he wouldn’t. Better story for the investors than EVs.


"They" is the wrong pronoun. Elon's pronoun is "he". HE's working hard to undermine HIS own success, turn HIS brand toxic, ...


The best pronoun joke, ever.


It could be, except it's not factually correct (and an element of truth is necesssary for good humor). GP was talking about Tesla, not about Elon. The correct pronoun for a company is surely "they"


It could be, or you could consider it to be like a ship, in which case it is she!


ha! I stand corrected :-)


The most amusing to me is that British English considers a company a collective noun, and says "Apple are going to make an iPod" whereas the US considers it a singular entity and says "Apple is going to make an iPod".


heh, great point, I never noticed that, but now I don't think I can unsee it. Consistency ftw


Shouldn't be "it" ? for the company itself


It’s commonly “they”

For example: “Meta released a new product, they (Meta) are calling it …”


WHOOSH! You're completely missing the point that it's all Elon's fault, not his company's. GP was incorrect to blame Tesla for Musk's own failures. Blaming the destruction and undermining and toxicity on "them" is obfuscating the true cause, and smearing hard working innocent people, who didn't just shoot off their big fat racist mouths like Elon did.

Nobody else at Tesla made Nazi salutes, and publicly bullied, abused, and humiliated their own daughter, and perpetrated DOGE's destruction and corruption. Tesla ("they") had nothing to do with any of that, but suffered from Elon doing it.


I think Tesla as a company is doing the right moves. The management (excluding Elon) seems solid and smart.

The problem is that we often attach a company or a larger idea to a single person, even when it is much much bigger than that individual. People started boycotting Tesla because of Elon Musk, without considering that Tesla is actually thousands of engineers, workers, and managers. And majority of decisions are not done by Elons.

But people tend to think in terms of heroes and anti heroes. Cesar Chavez is another example of how this dynamic plays out.


Elon has always been the face of Tesla since he acquired it from the founders. Early he was a brand asset, but tying one's identity so strongly to a company is a brand risk when that person's image is tarnished.

Just look at Martha Stewart Living during her incarceration.

Celebrities are great at building brands, but they need to back away from their personal successes have bootstrapped the new brand before something they do becomes a liability.

Subway made their own celebrity spokesperson (Jared) and hitched their wagon to him for far too long. One or two years is understandable, but Subway had him so long it merged its identity with Jared until the truth about Jared was revealed.


> I think Tesla as a company is doing the right moves. The management (excluding Elon) seems solid and smart.

How can (generally) dropping sales and having 50,000 unsold cars on stock be the right move?


Perhaps OP is referring to the pivot away from cars and toward automation

But seeing as how they haven’t launched a decent car in a decade, and have utterly failed to launch true FSD as promised, I have no confidence that they can succeed in a new market given they are demonstrably shit at their core competency


The amount of apologia exists for Musk actions is just mind boggling. It seems to me that people want all the good from the hype Musk brings, but if things go wrong - Why don't people think of the poor workers?

You live by the sword, you die by the sword. If people were so smart where were they when Musk was hyping autonomous vehicles being just around the corner for years? Or the fact that the board of directors kept raising his compensation to insane levels because he kept threatening them that he'll walk out? The company chose to do this. People didn't. Now that he is tanking the valuation, we don't need to separate out Tesla and Musk. They are one and the same.


The Model Y is going on 8 years old, S and X are being shutdown. That leaves you with the 3 and Y. Cybertruck will be shutdown soon. What new models have they announced?


Robotaxi... It's going through iterations and could be turned into a sub 30K ev.


Any day now…


The Cybertruck, while unappealing to some, is the only vehicle on the road that doesn't look the same as every other one.

For all of Elon Musk's objectionable-eccentricities, at least this legacy will remain: He dared to make a vehicle (the Cybertruck) that looks like it's actually from the future; not designed by another salaryman-engineering-graduate with a copy of AutoCAD and a wind-tunnel (which is what everything else on the road looks like).

Power the next-generation of Cybertruck with hydrogen, and bundle a solar-electrolysis charging-station with it, and I'd buy one before breakfast.


no worries, when things go hard and stock goes down they can count on Trump for a convenient war and oil crisis.


This war is going to push oil prices up, which means more EV sales. On top of that, make sure to sprinkle a bit of tariffs in order to block BYD.

Mhhh, makes sense.


The oil prices is a short term thing, and Trump is all about "Drill baby drill" so no, it doesn't make sense.

The tariffs though is a great point. Definitely a boon for Tesla from good old Papa Trump. It's grotesque.


Well, I didn't say it's intentional... just that they can count on it... but yeah it was sarcasm.




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