“The entire San Francisco to Los Angeles project was initially supposed to be completed by 2020 and cost $33 billion. Today, the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment alone would cost more than the original total. The latest estimate for San Francisco to Los Angeles is $106 billion — more than three times the original cost estimate.”
“The CHSRA Inspector General also found that even this limited project, with barely 2 million in annual projected ridership because it fails to connect California’s larger cities, is unlikely to be completed by 2033.”
Contrast this with the New Mexico Rail Runner. Initiated in 2003, entered into initial service for the three largest stations on 2006, 97 miles-15 stations in 2017, 800K ridership in 4Q 2024. Total capital cost: 380M dollars. That’s an M as in Million, not a B as in Billion. (All from Wikipedia)
How does that compare in cost and completion time on a per-mile basis with the CA “proposal”…one order of magnitude, two orders of magnitude…perhaps three if it ever gets completed? Would this CA rail project ever have been approved if these actual cost and completion times had been presented to lawmakers? CA should be on the hook for the Federal monies spent on this…”proposal”.
Lesson to be learned: nobody ever went broke solving a smaller, easier part of a problem first. If you can’t accomplish that (for even the smallest possible quantum of the problem), maybe you should cut bait.
“The CHSRA Inspector General also found that even this limited project, with barely 2 million in annual projected ridership because it fails to connect California’s larger cities, is unlikely to be completed by 2033.”
Contrast this with the New Mexico Rail Runner. Initiated in 2003, entered into initial service for the three largest stations on 2006, 97 miles-15 stations in 2017, 800K ridership in 4Q 2024. Total capital cost: 380M dollars. That’s an M as in Million, not a B as in Billion. (All from Wikipedia)
How does that compare in cost and completion time on a per-mile basis with the CA “proposal”…one order of magnitude, two orders of magnitude…perhaps three if it ever gets completed? Would this CA rail project ever have been approved if these actual cost and completion times had been presented to lawmakers? CA should be on the hook for the Federal monies spent on this…”proposal”.
Lesson to be learned: nobody ever went broke solving a smaller, easier part of a problem first. If you can’t accomplish that (for even the smallest possible quantum of the problem), maybe you should cut bait.