Are these not at least two possibilities? Furthermore, what kind of heuristic is that? I don't see people being able to predict the future with much reliability.

I'd say they're kind of a blend - heuristics is what enables the Illusory Truth Effect.

> I don't see people being able to predict the future with much reliability.

Agree, but people seem generally unable to realize this (there is a similar problem with Truth, another thing people predict without realizing - see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33593349).

Now, what is the causality of this? Presumably it is a natural consequence/side effect/service of consciousness. But: so (presumably) are things like racism, but because that is harmful, society has deemed it inappropriate and this is socially enforced in various ways. Might the same be possible with clairvoyance and soothsaying, or at least in certain special scenarios/venues? The institution of science seems to have accomplished it, and realized substantial benefits as a consequence - might it have utility in domains other than science (politics, human relations, etc)?