However, it needs to be said that he received those numbers. I personally have quite a few issues with him, but there's no reason to doubt his journalistic integrity. Because of that, I believe he reports truthfully on data he receives by informants.
Additionally, none of the frontier models actually publicly talks about inference costs in anything but broad, "let's just forget that"-like takes. Which does not exactly spark confidence.
I'm eagerly awaiting anthropic's public disclosure of their financial details. That should be rather interesting in any case and finally put the inference-discussion to rest.
No reason to doubt his journalistic integrity? He's not a journalist for starters. He's a PR flack who does PR for AI startups on the side while blogging on substack. There is every reason to doubt his journalistic integrity.
The PR-thing was always openly communicated by him and is not some secret or gotcha. It's essentially "fleecing the boosters", which I fully approve of and do similarly myself.
I'll gladly tell my customers all the most glorious stuff about AI and big tech while spending a significant chunk of the money they pay me on supporting AI-/tech-counterculture, such as doctorow, zitron and quite a few other writers, journalists and activists.
It's the old "you live in a society" counter-point against anti-capitalist activism. Needing to make ends meet does not imply that your points or principles are meaningless, it just implies that you have no interest in being homeless and that way losing your chance to actually change things.
So that's fine to me. But: I stated it for a reason, because I know others don't agree. I, personally, consider him trustworthy. You do not, and that's fine. I suspect we both await anthropic's Z.1, which will be able to settle a big chunk of the debate.
He was right about the cost changes, which he predicted quite some time ago. People shouted at him that he was making it all up - yet it was correct.
He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea.
He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it.
Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, such as Uber is doing now. His prediction is, ROI is negative. And I'm awaiting the society's consensus on that.
The general direction seems correct to me.
He's not a technical guy and does not have the knowledge to critique models on a factual basis. I do wish he'd just focus on the stuff he _does_ know about, which is the financial side of things.
He is a much needed counterweight to the unhealthy hype going around, imho.
> He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea.
He specifically predicted that AI videos have plateaued in 2024 which is egregiously wrong.
> He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it.
He specifically predicted that accuracy won't increase but accuracy has increased over the time significantly to the point where you can't get it to say anything inaccurate using the reasoning models.
> Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, such as Uber is doing now. His prediction is, ROI is negative. And I'm awaiting the society's consensus on that.
The whole Uber skepticism is a good point because all of those people were wrong and Uber is profitable now.
You didn't address my other criticisms - he claimed that revenue would drop in 2024 and it skyrocketed. He claimed that users weren't interested in ChatGPT but now it has a billion users (6x jump).
The article says in the second section that the author did not have access to Mythos. I think it’s dangerous to rely on claims made by others without even bothering to read them first, let alone check.
It found hundreds of vulnerabilities in Firefox, according to Mozilla: how does Mozilla benefit? It found a 27 year old vulnerability in OpenBSD. How do they benefit from that? Is that made up? Are the maintainers of those codebases lying for the benefit of Anthropic’s IPO? Is copy fail a fabrication by big AI? The 12 OpenSSL vulnerabilities found in January?
Im not sure whose claims you think I’m relying on. I trust Firefox that they’re not overstating the number of CVES they’ve found. Same for OpenSSL. The OpenBSD folks definitely don’t seem like the types. I’ve not known Linux to fabricate CVEs either. I think my sources are fine.
The problem here is looking at a substance in isolation, instead of comparatively.
The actual question is: would drinking that stuff with sugar have caused more damage to health? And the answer will likely be yes. Because we _know_ just how bad sugar is for you. Particularly diabetes, microbiome changes, addictive behavior, obesity of course, cardiovascular issues...
If you'd look at sugar in isolation, as a new substance that stuff would never be allowed in any country at all.
Not technically but practically. The decrees are effectively considered law by the executive. Yes, you'll likely win in court later on, but you'll lose your job, get sent to prison, have your bank accounts and vehicle seized, etc., in the meantime.
Legality isn't really of much practical concern anymore. It's about what gets/can be enforced immediately.
What a weird comment. How many private business managers have ever been sent to prison for violating an EO? This particular EO doesn't even mention any criminal penalties.
The thing is that the IPOs necessitate a full release of their actual costs for inference and training. This by itself should be enough to pop the bubble, if the occasional bits of it we get are anything to go by.
There is a reason anthropic is still hiding those details:
> key details typically included in that form about a company’s operations — like potential risks to its business, executive compensation, and other financials — won’t become public until later on in the process
This is conjecture. There is a reason both openai and anthropic refuse to comment on inference costs. If it were falling so much, they would use it to brag.
I really don't understand why so many people keep repeating it without any actual data for the frontier models.
Apart from that, I'm not sure if focusing on tokens is even a good idea, because they are so different from model to model. I'd almost consider them a red herring now.
We could look at tasks instead.
Is there anything even remotely suggesting that your typical task you give an LLM now costs less in inference than before?
This is not about america. Not everything has to be turned into a discussion about some US internal issue.
The medium author has this in their bio: "healing, self-improvement, meditation, manifestation". Well, does not seem like the best source to me.
Aside from that, next you're probably going to post the protocols? Because that's where this line of thinking usually seems to take people. It's really nonsensical to focus on individual people, it's much more important to talk about systems and incentives. And, especially, compare to how it works in other countries.
Did they get to a similar place without person x? Then person x is probably not the primary issue here, but rather something on the system level.
Just like how the story of epstein is not the story of one evil person, it's the story of a part of society which deliberately enabled him and a system with no real safeguards in place.
Generally, with the regular in-IDE agents you have the ability to easily intervene, correct and live-check. Considering the high fail rate of agents (depending on software complexity of course), that's required if you want to get anything done and not be slowed down by it.
Otherwise you'd always have to context switch, consider which git state it's actually working from, etc. - rather than just letting the code directly before you change in your IDE.
It's significantly lower cognitive load and has a higher success rate, in my experience.
But, of course: Highly depends on the software being written and the general code infrastructure.
There is no reason such a state would have to set things up this way.
As an example: you probably know that germany has socialized healthcare. It is, however, not implemented as a single-payer model. Instead there are tons of different insurances competing with each other, while having a highly regulated floor of what they MUST offer.
Is the model perfect? Hell no, it has tons of issues - though overall it's pretty solid. My point is just that social policies and "no internal competition ever" does absolutely not have to go hand in hand. There is a massive middle ground.
See: social democracy as a concept and in its current implementation.
Germany has a dual healthcare system with both public (GKV) and private health insurance (PKV) options. About 10% of residents use private health insurance.
Problem here being that those terms aren't used as defined in regular discourse. Language changes and casual use differs from academic use.
When on an american-centric board anybody writes about "communism", I assume they refer to anything from marxism to stalinism to socialism to democratic socialism to social democracy up to anything non-hyper-capitalist. Not great, but sadly something to be taken into consideration.
Especially when looked at in context - parent was criticizing the EU initiative by essentially claiming something like that leads to a kind of monoculture like in a planned economy reminiscent of "communism", here probably meaning stalinism, from what I assume is a radical libertarian position. Which tells me the person is likely american, implying a rather ... minimal awareness of the nuance here.
Please, look at the actual comment chain and it should be rather trivial to make out what everybody is talking about. Does your comment really add value here?
The fundamental reason why terms are confused is because malicious
actors (bad faith) intentionally set up to at best muddy the waters
and at worst associate things they fight against with the worst
adjectives. That doesn’t reflect on anyone present right here, just a
process that took decades.
I don’t care if someone “doesn’t know” about the nuance when they
breathlessly throw back with One Cereal For Everyone Decided By The
State. Come on.
> Please, look at the actual comment chain and it should be rather trivial to make out what everybody is talking about. Does your comment really add value here?
I can understand that you think my reply is pedantic noise. That’s
simply because we have different goals and things that we intend to
communicate. I’m content with setting the record straight. You
apparently want to calmly explain the difference between apparent
Stalinism and Bernie Sanders-style Socialism.
I think I am able to make out what people are talking about. But you
can’t seem to, right in this context, imagine that we all have different
goals ourselves about what we wish to get out of commenting here.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructed_language
reply