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Okay, so if Google wins AGI first, who is to say that AGI isn’t so disruptive, the government just nationalizes Google?

In dictatorship, the government nationalizes the companies. In USA, the companies nationalize the government.

This war was already declared a decade ago. By many interests. And victory followed.

I think though a big part of this was YouTube replaced blogs. It's a generational thing.


How far along the curve do you think TikTok is to replacing YouTube?


$45 billion for a 3 year rental.


What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.


The AI row of the capex table in the S-1 should be a pretty close approximation.


Nobody pays MSRP at that scale


Given global demand and that they were late to the order party, they probably paid more lol


Yes and no. They paid what everyone else pays for those gpus. NVIDIA make the profit and leaves crumbs for the rest. For other components they paid less, but since the gpus are the majority of the cost…


Closer to 18b than 40. Running costs are 1-2b a year.


More like $25 billion since 2025, with $7 billion of spending in the past 3 months. Look at page 22 of the filing.


Anthropic is getting capacity from Colossus 1 not Colossus 2 it sounded like. The initial colossus capex was under $5B, making that an even more astounding payoff.

Edit: S1 states both are being leased so the 20-25B initial investment probably more relevant


The S-1 states that it gets capacity from both Colossus 1 and Colossus 2.


... and a sign Anthropic couldn't find enough compute anywhere else, so they had to bite the bullet. Interesting.


how much did SpaceX / xAI pay for these GPUs? After 3 years they'll probably be mostly deprecated.


Are GPUs from 3 years ago being deprecated today?


I thought I saw a report from someone at Google saying that they were still running 7+ year old hardware because of demand. Even if it is not state of the art, if it generates more than the electricity costs, keep it running until it dies.


Efficiency gains have been so intense that old hardware is still viable for serving brand new mid size models.


Likely legacy products are running on the old chips because the newer generations are capacity constrained.


Hetzner is still running and selling Haswell Xeons and GTX-1080s that are 10+ years old.

Definitely not silicon waste the second something faster arrives. There's still a world beyond cutting edge LLM slop after all.


And how many of them were diverted from Tesla?


Pretty sure that Tesla didn't use Colossus. Tesla used Cortex 1 and Cortex 2 which are at the Gigafactory in Austin.



The article says: In December, an internal Nvidia memo seen by CNBC said, “Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipped H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla.”


> sad dark HN loser path

Assertion assertion assertion wishful thinking assertion.

Show, don't tell. Show us that we're wrong and this isn't a VC black hole. The CEO of Enron as late as September 2001 could've called every critic a sad dark loser with nobody challenging him publicly. Jim Cramer famously yelled anyone pulling their money from Bear Sterns in 2008 was "silly, do not be silly" exactly 8 days before their collapse and a -92% stock drop. In COVID, calling everyone paranoid and sensationalist about some mythical new flu was popular in December 2019 and gone by March 2020. How about Uber, the seeming go-to for how VCs can turn a money hole into a profitable business? The average price increase is now 18% per year and still going up, with an over 60% increase in 5 years. Does anyone still talk about the "sad dark HN loser path" of those who doubted VR in 2018? How's your VR startup doing?


But why would I spend any time mastering this skill when we have AI now?

Disability software that uses both the markup and the on-screen visual for decision making is likely imminent and would render most of this no longer necessary.

Claude Cowork is already doing navigation and web browsing by screenshot showing this is possible.


I guarantee you no one is working on this.


A larger, monied AI service will almost certainly trot something like this out as proof of public good in the next few years,

even if it’s something they only notice they can do by accident,

or in a down news cycle.


What?

Seriously, not at all. Anti-competitive practices is when you go out of your way to use legal agreements or practices, in an illegal way (i.e. from the starting point of a monopoly), to deliberately restrict the ability to use competition.

Openclaw is not a competitor with Claude. Anti-competitive practices would only occur here if Anthropic used some technique to prevent people from using Claude alternatives (i.e. if you install Claude Code, all other AI agents are forcibly disabled on your system).


>Openclaw is not a competitor with Claude

Not Claude, but other Anthropic products such as Claude Cowork.


There is literally nothing close to illegal about this behavior. You read the terms of service right, which provides a long list of explicit and implicit disclaimers?


If I have a terms of service for my SaaS where I've snuck in a vague term that I can "charge additional usage fees at my discretion", it doesn't mean I get to actually charge you $100,000 because I found out your favorite color is blue.

There's absolutely an expectation of reasonability and good faith.

Nobody signing up for Claude would be reasonably assuming that they are allowed to arbitrarily decide what magic words suddenly bypass the subscription cost model that was actually purchased into an overcharge model that is significantly more expensive, whose verbiage clearly indicates the intent of the feature being enabled is to allow additional use after the quota has been consumed, not randomly at the behest of Anthropic.


What action did the user take that was against the TOS?


You misunderstand. The user didn't take an action that was "against the TOS".

The TOS simply allows Anthropic to decline to fulfill a request at any time for any reason.


TOS are not laws. They often conflict with actual laws, and are then void. So you can't just say "It's in the TOS", you do have to look at actual laws and whether they may be violated (Because it is anticompetitive or whatever else)


Sorry, are you claiming that it's illegal (in the US, where Anthropic operates) for Anthropic to decline to operate on a repo that contains commits relating to OpenClaw?

Or just that in your opinion, it should be illegal?

Simply doing something anticompetitive is not inherently illegal, despite a lot of people thinking it is.


It doesnt decline if you have API billing enabled, it straight up charges your request to API instead of Quota if setup (see $200 charge example below). This is happening if you have the words HERMES.md or OpenClaw apparently in the commit. In OP's example, it immediately depleted his session quota because of the words. That is not 'declining to operate'. Also, remember, it is the presence of the words. So if the commit was 'we dont do this, we arent openclaw', you are affected.

https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/53262#issue...


No, you're discussing a different issue. Related, sure, but not the same one.

We're discussing the comment with repro by abdullin:

> Immediate disconnect *and session usage went to 100%*

Emphasis mine.

I ran the commands and did not see session usage go to 100%. I simply got an error message.

I don't have extra usage/API billing enabled. If I did, I wouldn't expect a "hi" to use all of my extra usage. In the link you sent, they genuinely used $200 of credits, they were just billed as credits not as subscription quota.

So we have a couple different behaviors:

- If API/extra usage billing is enabled, it uses that.

- If API/extra usage billing is disabled, abdullin reports session quota going to 100%

- If API/extra usage billing is disabled, margalabargala reports session usage not changing and errors refusing to do anything.


> (in the US, where Anthropic operates)

Locally, they also need to abide by the local laws and regulations of anywhere that they choose to sell their services.


if I had a penny for every time I read on HN that should either "is" or "should be" illegal when it both isn't and shouldn't be... I'd be a very rich man :)


So, in America, just because it's written in a contract does not mean it's enforceable in anyway.

I can make you sign a infinitely generating contract, that doesn't mean it's enforceable/


> So, in America, just because it's written in a contract does not mean it's enforceable in anyway.

But the presumption, as any court will show, is that it is fully blooming enforceable. The burden of proof is on showing it isn't. This particular instance, a lawyer would laugh at you in the face over, this is absolutely 100% stone cold enforceable common and expected.

How do you expect Facebook or HN to moderate if certain uses aren't prohibited? The same principle applies. HN bans certain phrases, lots of them.


Does HN randomly charge you money for using these phrases?


> just because it's written in a contract does not mean it's enforceable in anyway

And we continue slipping into lawlessness and a low trust society...


Also they ain't wrong. In what other context does OpenClaw get mentioned?

"You may not use our service if you mention OpenClaw" is a harsh line but hardly illegal or forbidden any more than any other service restriction (i.e. no use allowed for high-stakes financial modeling). Don't like it, cancel your plan.


> is a harsh line

But that's the thing -- there is no line! Where is this specified? How can we know what service restrictions there are? For all I know, my plan could be exhausted at any point during the workday just because I happened to touch on some keyword Anthropic has decided to ban.

> Don't like it, cancel your plan.

Ah, but I thought these models were supposed to have been trained for the sake of humanity? That the arbitrary enclosure of the collective intelligence was for our own good? These concepts are not compatible.


> I thought these models were supposed to have been trained for the sake of humanity?

Tbh blocking OpenClaw might just be for the betterment of humanity. It's yet to be proven either way.


When you signed up, you agreed you understood the line - which is whatever Anthropic decides the line is. Legally, the line hasn't changed at all, nor has your moral position relative to Anthropic. Don't like it, cancel, but it was always the deal.

This is, by the way, the same legal principle that the website you are posting on, right now, uses. Some uses are prohibited. Not every line need be explicit. You aren't allowed to smack talk Y Combinator or the moderators without possibly being banned for life, and you certainly do not have a legal case if they do.


Do you think businesses are allowed to just take your money, laugh, and refuse service for no reason?

People spend large sums of money for this tool. They can't just delete your balance because they feel like it.


> Do you think businesses are allowed to just take your money, laugh, and refuse service for no reason?

> People spend large sums of money for this tool. They can't just delete your balance because they feel like it.

Unfortunately, in the US, they can. I'm not a lawyer working in this area, but my understanding is that companies are in general free to stop doing business with any customer at any time (other than reasons like the race of the customer). And in this type of transaction, there is no obligation to give a refund when they cut off the business relationship. This is different from a business-to-business contract or other types of contracts. This type of sale you're generally out of luck if the business cuts you off. That's why Amazon can delete the music library they sold you and give you no compensation.


Amazon doesn't sell digital music; they sell a license that contractually they can revoke at any time.

It's possible that Anthropic also structured its EULA such that we're buying Claude Fun-Bucks with no value and that they can obliterate at any time with no recourse. I haven't read the EULA so who knows. But if they did this and it went to court, they'd still need to get a jury to agree to this interpretation and that's a huge unknown.


They can not prolong the contract but obviously they still have to provide the service you already paid for. Imagine paying for 1 year of Netflix and one week later Netflix decides to cut you off. Does that make sense?


I'm not a lawyer working in this area

You could have just stopped there. The rest of what you wrote just re-demonstrates that you don't know what you're talking about.


If you’re paying for it, they can’t just arbitrarily deny you service for made up reasons. I would cancel, but then I would also charge back my payment I’m not getting my promised service for.


Sure they can. But they have to refund your money.


There are plenty of ways you could wind up with a git commit containing "OpenClaw" despite zero interaction with OpenClaw itself...adding a blog post to a static site repo, or even a clause in your own app's ToS disallowing use of OpenClaw with your API.


Somebody elses repo that you cloned can contain lots of fun things.


> but hardly illegal or forbidden any more than any other service restriction

Intentionally (or negligently) anti-competitive behavior is illegal in the US.

> Don't like it, cancel your plan.

Don't like being abused by a company? Just pretend it's not happening! Anyone else exactly as smart as you were, they deserve to be cheated out of their money too!


There's a lot of people making tools for coding with LLMs and those have a high chance of mentioning OpenClaw somewhere.


Where is this restriction documented?


> have been taken advantage of by capitalism

“And many programmers, they say to me, “The people who hire programmers demand this, this and this. If I don't do those things, I'll starve.” It's literally the word they use. Well, you know, as a waiter, you're not going to starve. So, really, they're in no danger.”

- Richard Stallman in 2001 admitting his ideology can’t explain how a programmer can eat

In my opinion, though this is HN heresy, the free software ideology and ethos was naïve, utopian, and clueless about how power works, from day 1. His dream is literally structurally impossible, capitalism or no capitalism, so long as humans need money to eat.


> and clueless about how power works, from day 1

September 26th, 1983:

"Dear Mr. Stallman, it is I, gjsman-1000, a time-traveler sent back to tell you to rethink your upcoming GNU project because you are currently clueless about how power works. Yes, you may be able to code up an impressive prototype compiler and revise it until your fingers bleed. Yes, a decade later some zealous followers may follow your lead and maintain it on the bleeding edge. Yes, two decades later others will perhaps start an open source compiler project to wrest control from your successful compiler that is largely maintained without your direct input. And yes, three decades later your compiler team may even merge in new features and improvements that came from the other compiler. But heed my ominous warning: four decades later I will not be able to remember my original point, for time travel is dangerous business and has adverse effects on short and long term memory."


What is RMS quote supposed to prove here? We can always find new work? Is that it? If so -- not so fast. When you have a family, your freedom is severely hampered. Most companies understand this and abuse it.

And yes the free software ideology is as naive as a puppy. Every serious individual understands this. Most HN-ers are in a fairly specific bubble (income brackets, geo-location, political leanings, upbringing, the whole package); of course to them this is "heresy". This is well-understood. Happily for me and many others around here, karma farming is not the goal so we don't mind getting some gray arrow treatment every now and then.


Communism occurs in part whenever a need is met or an economic decision is made without using value tokens. Direct access to resources without money happens every day (e.g. anyone using Linux rather than a proprietary OS, or exercising in a public park rather than a for-profit gym). The only thing keeping other products & services hoarded behind paywalls is devotion to capitalist ideology. It literally is a problem of capitalism. The structure of the world outside of people's brains has nothing to do with it.


I mean, repeated claims about starving programmers I see HN are indeed ridiculously dramatic. They show up in relation to open source, but mostly as arguments why all those highly paid people just must do unethical things, else they will starve.

I am not even fan of Stallman. I think it is ok to produce close software. But starving argument is just not it.


It is my experience that most people work hard to 'get ahead' and not to merely survive. Yes, we will work for subsistence wages if no other option exists, but the goal is to thrive.

Some who are opposed to capitalism seem to think that anyone who wants to trade their talents and hard work for more than the minimum, are exploiting anyone who wants or needs their product.


They get more public goodwill from a single ad. The chronically online Linux-using engineer community is too small to matter.


Looking at: https://stats.asahilinux.org/ there is still a pretty large userbase who are so interested in it they go this route. I imagine that count would easily 10x if it would be officially supported. Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.

I'm running asahi on my macbook. And never touch OSX. I wouldn't even had gotten it if asahi wasn't so well supported.


And let’s be honest, they still wouldn’t be satisfied. The goal post would move to something else. Why don’t my AirPods seamlessly handoff to my Linux MacBook?


I doubt that. The developer community is what made the MacBook predominant in every tech organization. Before that Macs were mostly popular in the creative sector.


Developers build many of the applications that make the platform desirable. Steve Ballmer at least seem to get that part. ;)


The developers for their platforms. Which, crucially, Linux developers are not.


Apple Macbooks support virtualization of Linux on MacOS.


That's a low bar. Microsoft does too, with a much better hypervisor.


Yes, Linux developers are officially supported by both Apple and Microsoft, with Microsoft developers being a major contributor to upstream Linux and WSL2 having grown into a capable Linux development environment.


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