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No, he started predicting in his 2005 book, based on the “Law of Accelerating Returns”, yielding exponential growth in computing capacity.

Timeline from here on out:

2029: AI passes a valid Turing test and achieves human-level intelligence

2030s: Technology goes inside your brain to augment memory; humans connect their neocortex to the cloud

2045: The Singularity, when human intelligence multiplies a billion-fold by merging with AI


Data for AI training is increasingly synthesized.

I was more thinking about data to augment inference. Google already "knows" its users.

> The frontier models stole the whole internet

What does that even mean?


> LLMs aren't out there thinking about stuff in their spare time.

Agentic changes the calculus.


Explain how? Even if you are using crons or heartbeats to reactivate the model they are still dependent on context windows that are quite small. With frontier models I still have to remind them how stuff works, stuff they forgot or focused on the wrong thing, etc.

Also every AI company is motivated to have us use their models _just enough_ to want to pay for them, but not more than that.


The real issue is that oil filters and gears are really just legacy design. EVs don’t need them.

So, similar with software design, as in other fields, often a problem goes away when you ask a different question.


You may not know this, but EVs also have oil filters and gears. They also having cooling systems. What they don't have is an engine (they have motors). But the motors have their own cooling system, and the gears have their own oil system with filters.

Every moving part - especially gears -- needs to be oiled, and whenever you are oiling metal on metal contact such as in gears, you are going to want an oil filter to catch worn metal debris, to remove it from the oil.

The difference between EVs and ICE vehicles is not that only one of them uses oil to reduce friction, but that the oil service intervals on EVs are so long that regular oil maintenance is not needed, you do it every 60,000 miles or whatever the manufacturer recommends, so it's out of mind. But that doesn't mean it doesn't require service.

Once EVs have been around for a while and there is an established market for used EVs, the people who buy them are going to want to change the oil to add more life to the EV. So it's something that is dealt with in the long-life maintenance, not the monthly maintenance. But when you do the oil service, you will curse Tesla for needing to drop the battery in order to do it, and all of a sudden you will care where things are placed and how accessible they are.

Here is a nice video -- I follow Sam Crac as one of my favorite automotive youtubers - and he picked up an old Tesla and did an oil service for it. It's a nice watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0ZNHKjHalY


EVs have gears and gear oil in their drive units. There is a reduction gear that needs lubrication, as well as the differential.

They actually will need oil changes starting anywhere from the 50k to 100k mile mark.

Here's the maintenance guide with pictures walking through changing the oil and filter for the Rear Drive Unit (RDU) in a Tesla Model S:

https://service.tesla.com/docs/ModelS/ServiceManual/Palladiu...


EVs also have consumable parts which it would be incredibly annoying to place in nonsensical locations.

The obvious one is the battery, and you can argue that modern EVs have batteries so expensive that when they are dead the car becomes scrap, and - sure, whatever.

But EVs still have: cabin air filters, coolant, brake fluid, lubricants in various places (although granted, these lubricants will mostly last the service life).

At the end of the day, as long as you have a car which moves, and not a statue, it will have things which wear out and which should be easy to replace.

Engine oil and oil filters are just an example.


> Art is always in the eye of the beholder.

I like to think of fine art as a subjective human expression to stir emotion.


> data centre brings absolutely no economic benefit whatsoever to its local community

Following that logic, are you suggesting that data centers should not be built at all?


I’m saying that communities are absolutely within their right to oppose developments that make their homes and their lives worse for no benefit.

> a mcdonalds is probably 1% of the land and employs more than 30 people.

Fast food chains are damaging to human health.


neat!

replace "mcdonalds" with "specialty health foods" or "flower shop" or "independent book store" or whatever and my points remains unchanged: job numbers arent an argument in favor of datacenters, they are an argument against them.


How much money did we spend on this nothingburger?

> we need future wage earners to exist. If people don't have jobs, who is buying the goods and services

When you travel around the world, you often see jobs that exist in one country but not in another, for multiple reasons but including automation or self-serve, etc.

It is impossible for us to be confident about what specific jobs (or activities) humans will do 15+ years, but we also know that people need a way to exchange something of value to get something of value and that jobs provide a sense of purpose that people might otherwise not know how to fill.


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