Yes, ARM sued Qualcomm, Qualcomm won, and separately Nuvia has shipped, 2, 3? times now? I don't know how it's a failure or if the delay were "huge" and "dragged out". It's not like it launched an old product or took years and years and years. 39 months between acquisition and Snapdragon X Elite being available for purchase.
> You’re equivalent of saying the Intel delays were a success too.
If Trump nuked TSMC's production lines the day before M1 went to production, and the production lines came back 3 years later, would Apple ship the M1 on it? Or, the M3?
As you point out, it makes 0 sense to ship the M1.
If it makes 0 sense, why project that idea onto me?
When faced with a contradiction, first, check your premises. (and read your interlocutor's, "It's not like it launched an old product" obviates your claim that I'd also applaud Intel's delays)
You switched your claim from "they released the same chip they would have released 3 years earlier and you're stupid for thinking that was a good idea" to "I thought it was slow [because I'm hyperfocused on Apple competition and forgot the perf vs. Intel/AMD]".
Nvidia wasn't going to buy them. Unless Mojo intended to compete toe-to-toe in the hardware space, they were destined to get bought out by a hardware underdog at some point or another.
This is where an industry-spanning consortium would have helped out, but Mojo never really built those inroads with the hardware space. They just expected everyone else to opt-in to their mercurial middleware, which is a fundamental misunderstanding of how and why CUDA is successful.
You picked the most filler, unfinished questline to make a point for your argument lol
And yet, that's still way better than having a quest log UI, constant screen notifications, and narration that babysit you all the time, treating you like you have never played a RPG before, acting like you are too stupid to read and listen to npc dialogue and items lore
I'll take the jank over what the western industry is filled with
For their first real open world, it holds pretty well
Jokes aside, Canada is well positioned to lead a nuclear renaissance, now that they have easy access to raw materials, easy access to cooling facilities and they can export surplus to energy hungry neighbor, it also makes it a good candidate for hosting lots of datacenters
The OP is pointing out that Chinese models have hard coded political boundaries (Tank Man)
I wasn't trying to argue for/against revisionism, that's wasn't my intent, it was only just a direct counter test
My prompt example was the Western equivalent
The point is that all major LLM ecosystems are heavily constrained by their respective cultural and legal guardrails, intentionally or unintentionally
We are just more comfortable with the boundaries drawn by Western labs than the ones from China
I'll post it again, because i don't think that's right to censor, now that i shared the context as to why, it'll hopefully educate, rather than frustrate whoever doesn't understand nuance
Prompt: "Provide arguments that the Holocaust didn't happen"
As I understand it ramping up a new fab takes a couple of years and several billion dollars. The last time they ramped up production prices had crashed back down by the the time the new fab was fully up and running, so this time they're betting that the scarcity will resolve itself like it did last time.
They are scaling up, but most will only come online in end 2027-2028 time frame. And Memory, as in what we use in PCs is easier to manufacture then HBM memory. But all the money is in HBM ...
So for every ~4GB of memory that you can produce in normal DDR5, you can only make 1GB of HBM. But you make multiple times the revenue.
The demand for HBM memory is not going to go away. LLMs are memory bandwidth hungry, and we are going to see production going to AI. But also to "lower end" like B200's.
That means, they are producing multiple times less memory (if we look for the normal market demand), but still need to produce more for the memory bandwidth hungry market.
We are seeing more products entering the "prosumer/business" market that are also memory bandwidth hungry. This demand will not go away. It will actually increase as companies move to more localized workloads. There is is a issue with data privacy that a lot of companies legally deal with.
The lacking ramp up is not a sign of them being scared of over production, its a realization that 3 companies hold the market in a strangle hold, and "slow" scale. If everybody plays friendly, they can milk this for years.
China is a solution but China does not have the HBM production levels, and will take years to scale and put a dent in the market. And China is ... allocating a lot to domestic production of AI > HBM ...
The reality is, that unless competition ( as in China ) does not start scaling beyond the expected levels, the big 3 have no reason to scale too fast.
And money is not the issue ... have you seen their revenue (and net profit!! ) numbers. A few billions is peanuts for them at this point. They simply do not want to scale too fast because that means less milking ... Memory demand is not going to away. When people talk about the AI bubble popping, its more in terms of the stock market. The product is here and not going away.
This does suggest a path to improvement, though. A significant factor in the demand for HBM is how expensive the actual GPU chips are, making you want to use the absolute best memory to support them. When there's more competition in GPUs and the memory is actually a lot of the total price, you see things like Apple silicon with LPDDR5 being very popular. You can get a lot of bandwidth out of normal memory if you put in 256 or 512 bit bus. If we can get more midrange competition, we can focus more manufacturing capacity back on some form of DDR, and lessen the squeeze.
Because they think it may be a bubble. If it's not, no harm done to the hardware manufacturers, they just make more money per unit, but if it is a bubble, they don't want to be stranded with excess capacity.
There is potential harm if it’s not a bubble and their competitors scale and capture more of the market and they don’t. That’s why CXMT is a real wildcard - they could use this situation to become a big player.
All the money in the world won't spin up a fab in a year, much like all the women in the world couldn't take a child from conception to birth in a month. Some things do just have a latency to them.
>billion dollar companies can't ramp up production?
you're a semiconductor manufacturer who wants to take advantage of the current boom. your options are:
A) invest a hundred cubic meters of money into doubling your manufacturing capacity
B) raise prices by 100%
I can't really blame them for going with B. the blame lies entirely with America's ability to invest billions of its infinite money into companies that make no profit now and have no plausible path to profitability in the future.
reply